The lifespan of the population in the Russian Federation. Average life expectancy. Statistics life expectancy in Russia. What is wrong with the reports of the Ministry of Health about the growth of life expectancy in Russia
We all know from childhood about the dangers of alcohol, but at the same time we are firmly confident that without alcohol it is impossible. No holiday without it does, it is believed that the alcohol must necessarily drink "for courage" and in order to feel more sociable and liberated. But most often, alcohol plays with us a dick joke and instead of benefit, joy - more harm. The courage turns into aggression, and sociability - in frank nonsense.
If we know about the dangers of alcohol on the body, why do we drink?
Surrent time, Russia was one of the most unfinished countries. From alcohol, the Russians drank only Kvass and Medovukhu, the fortress of which did not exceed 2 - 3%. And that was allowed to drink them only to male soldiers who had at least nine children! All other use is strictly prohibited. Grape alcohol was delivered to Russia only in the 14th century, but no popularity in the people did not gain.
"Drunk people easier to manage"
Catherine II.
Gradually, to the nineteenth century, drunkenness was noticeable among the Russian population. Promotes the anti-people policy of power, which encouraged the violent dilution of peasants and workers. Nevertheless, there were quite a few tridents who saw all the harm of alcohol for a person and understood what it was behaved. People demanded the closure of the kabaks, there was a riot that covered more than fifteen provinces. The uprising was suppressed by armed forces, eleven thousand people were sent to Prisons and to Katorga. (A source)
In pre-revolutionary Russia, a dry law declared by Nicholas II acted. This gave an extraordinary lift of the economy. At that time, Russia was the strongest state in the world. After the revolution, the dry law was extended, but due to the subversive activities of the Trotskyist approach, in 1925 they again began to trade alcohol freely. But despite this, Russia did not start to spawn even during the war years and after it. After all, in a difficult situation, you need to act, rather than taking a stupid and substances.
Fetal alcoholic video about how Russia soldered
With the arrival of Khrushchev, gradually imposing alcohol to the population began to increase. And after him, Brezhnev continued to disperse the peoples of the USSR, covering it with the need to replenish the treasury. Then even in popular films, the audience was explained that in small doses you can use alcohol without harm to health. But as a result, the state received a lot of drunks and tuneev, orphans with living alcoholic parents and the corresponding expenses that exceeded the alcohol received from the sale of alcohol profits many times!
What harm is alcohol on the human body?
Ethyl alcohol has a powerful toxic effect on the human body. It is quickly absorbed in the stomach and the small intestine, shortly after taking alcohol begins to cause strong harm to health:
- The initial excitation of the central nervous system is then replaced by its oppression;
- Destroys the brain shell;
- The organs and systems of the body are affected;
- It causes violations of the embryo in the consumption of a pregnant woman.
That is, alcohol harms not only to us, but also our future children.
Fetal alcoholic syndrome
There is an extremely dangerous error that the use of alcohol during pregnancy is not prohibited, and a glass of red wine is even useful for a pregnant woman. Moreover, many gynecologists, instead of reading the future mothers lecture on the dangers of alcohol and smoking, are recommended to continue smoking, if only the future mommy would not be nervous because of the abandonment of nicotine. What to say about drinking sometimes to calm down.
But research suggests that the overwhelming number of children in the world is born with congenital deviations precisely because of a alcohol used by the mother during pregnancy. (A source)
This combination of congenital physical and mental defects received the name of fetal alcohol syndrome.
The following anomalies are counted to the FAS:
- Mental retardation, disruption of intelligence and other anomalies in the structure of the brain;
- Weight impairment and growth;
- Such facial anomalies, as too narrow eye gaps or flat bridge, cleavage of the nose, etc.
Look about the dangers of alcohol for future children
Such children have serious problems with school learning. They will need social protection and treatment all their lives. Even if alcohol used during pregnancy in small quantities, the harm caused by the body of the future child will be very large. Even if the baby does not receive a noticeable external deformity, it will in any case have problems with mental development, the risk of congenital heart defect will increase. In addition, these children will already carry damaged DNA and transmit it to future generations.
Video "Onishchenko says that alcohol is a drug"
Alcohol harm for a child is much more than for adult
All children have repeatedly heard that alcohol harms the body. But it is unlikely that any of them is aware of how it harms alcohol. After all, all adults drink and, allegedly, nothing bad with them does not happen. Well, there are some alcoholics, but it always seems that this will never happen to us. "I can throw at any time" - so thinks any addict. And alcohol is a drug, and very strong.
Each student needs to talk about the dangers of alcohol.
And it is very important to decompose on points, as specifically, he can damage alcohol:
1. First of all, the rapid children's body is very quickly addressed from alcohol. Children's psyche is very weak, and alcohol quickly causes narcotic dependence. And then the child every two, love, a friend's disease, etc. makes a reason for drinking. In a few years, this teenager is already in deep alcoholic dependence when it is ready for a lot for the bottle.
2. Even one glass of vodka is capable of breaking the work of the child's brain. Especially since there will be a strong harm for alcohol for children who regularly use alcohol. Previously, the ability will be lost, thinking will cease to develop, and moral standards will not be produced. Such teenagers are strongly stupid, physically and morally degraded.
3. The coherent harm to the alcohol for adolescents is the so-called "light" low alcohol products. They are not even considered alcohol, however, cause "beer" and "cannon" alcoholism. It would seem how to play can be sold in the store? But this is really a refive, which destroys the entire gastrointestinal tract. Due to launch cocktails, the number of young people, with acute pancreatitis, has increased hundreds of times in recent years.
Beer alcoholism
Unfair doctors, narcologists do not consider this term correct. Nevertheless, it is obvious that such alcoholism exists and, unfortunately, is very often found. His danger is that no one is afraid of drinking beer. It is believed that it can be drunk every day for dinner. Seeing that parents use this product so often, children begin to believe that such alcohol is absolutely harmless. That is why the beer at least once a week consumes half of the high school students in Russia. Each fifth tried it aged less than 10 years. There is even the opinion that such alcohol, like beer, is harmful only in overly large quantities, and a small amount can even benefit. But this is a terrible misconception! (A source)
What harm makes such alcohol like beer?
- The risk of developing alcohol dependence is even higher than when used wine and vodka;
- Somatic pathology (heart disease, vessels, liver, kidney, nervous system, hereditary diseases are developing rapidly;
- Beer changes hormonal background. It contains hops rich in phytoestrogens. Therefore, men who drink beer, fat are postponed on the female type - the chest increases and the pelvis expands. Development of testosterone decreases, weakens the thrust to the opposite sex. After 10 - 15 years, it is not even very frequent to use beer inevitably an impotence comes;
- Appears the "beer" heart syndrome. Necrosis occur in the heart muscle, mitochondria decreases. This is due to the content in the beer of the stabilizer of foam - cobalt. This toxic element harms not only the heart, but also the stomach, and esophagus. Beer quickly fills the vessels, veins and heart boundaries are expanding. As a result, the heart saves, fabrics become flabs and bad blood swings. (A source)
- Beer, like any other alcohol, causes the death of brain cells, which are known, are not restored.
Any conversation about the dangers of alcohol is perceived as a ban on strong alcoholica. But alcoholism begins with the so-called "light" cocktails and beers. Moreover, when we drink the "Siberian Crown" or "Baltic", we are not supported by the Russian manufacturer. All these enterprises belong to foreign corporations, and all profits leave there. And our country takes only such consequences as an increase in crime, the children of parents of alcoholics and the need to treat diseases accumulated during the consumption of these products.
But the greatest harm for drinking alcohol is the impact on the brain. Our country has always been famous for its writers, scientists, composers. It is difficult to imagine how much geniuses were not born due to the popularization of the "cultural" drink? How many discoveries we did not do because we regularly blow your brain beer or alcohol-cocktail? And should we use alcohol? For what? So that problems with memory becomes stronger? So that it is more difficult to focus? When we understand that alcohol harm is not less than the harm of other drugs, and begin to lead a healthy lifestyle?
This film tells in detail about the dangers of alcohol:
Belyaeva Elena Anatolyevna
The average life expectancy in Russia is 72.8 years. Over the past year, she grew by 73 days, experts were calculated by Ranjigs.
"In 2018, life expectancy in Russia reached its historic maximum, an increase in men by 0.3 years, in women - for 0.2 years," the minister reported.
In the May decree, the President of Russia, we recall, set the task to ensure an increase in the life expectancy of life up to 78 years by 2024, and by 2030, to bring this indicator to 80 years.
In order to fulfill the May Decree in this part, the Government needs to ensure the increase in this duration of life primarily in men. They live 10 years less than women. And this trend almost does not change for many years.
The life expectancy of men at birth is now 67.66 years old, women - 77.87 years.
Until 2017, the gap on the floor decreased from 13.5 years to 10.1 years. However, according to the last year, this figure began to grow again and amounted to as a result of 10.2 years.
According to the World Health Organization, the average life expectancy of people in the world has grown by 5.5 years to 72 years. The lowest gap in the life expectancy of the floor in the EU countries demonstrates the Netherlands, Iceland, Sweden (3.2 years). Three times less than in Russia.
How really really cut this gap in the life expectancy between men and women and generally raise the life expectancy of Russians?
In experts, Ranjigs have considerable doubts about the ability of the government to enter the stated indicators.
In order to achieve them, an annual increase in life expectancy is needed for almost a year, and not by 73 days, experts consider.
"If there is no fundamental change in social policy, by 2024 the life expectancy will not grow up to the 78 years marked by the president, it is almost unrealistic. Our forecast: life expectancy will increase only to 75-76 years, "concludes one of the monitoring authors, the Senior Researcher of the Laboratory of Research Demography and Migration.
Not from being treated
Increase the lifespan of the population will not work for many reasons, the main one of which is the low efficiency of the funds of the national project "Health", believed in Ranjigs. Or rather, the reason lies in the disproportionate distribution of even existing modest means to combat diseases.
"Today, only 3.5% (75.2 billion rubles) of funds allocated to the project, aimed at reducing mortality from diseases of the circulatory system (meanwhile, these diseases caused death in 46% of cases last year -" Gazeta.Ru "), And 56% (969 billion rubles) - on the fight against oncology (16% of all the dead)," Experts are noted by Ravgigs.
But it is important to take into account that the lion's share of the oncological program is cappicals to the construction of the oncotes themselves, which in a number of regions are created practically "from scratch". Equipment, medicines, training-oncologists - is also very expensive.
In addition, experts believe that the funds of the National Project in the field of health care are desirable to focus on the fight against the causes of mortality. Many diseases could be avoided due to timely diagnosis, high-quality and affordable medical care and healthy lifestyle of the population. These claims to the Ministry of Health have been expressed by many years.
Finally, the gender component in the efforts of the Ministry of Health to increase life expectancy is practically not traced. It is logical to assume that since men live less, die faster, then this also needs to focus efforts.
Only one program has a direct appointment to support the health of men. Yes, and that running in the pilot mode. It is called "male health" and is aimed at improving the reproductive function of men 40-65 years. This problem is really available, infertility is fixed in 4 million men. But for the duration of life, this fact has only an indirect attitude.
Good to be a man in Moscow
Finally, it is necessary to eliminate the gender gap in the life expectancy if only because the men of working age are the support of many industries of the Russian economy.
According to Rosstat, the number of working-age population of Russia is 83.2 million people. Of these, 43.4 million are men. 39.7 - female able-bodied age.
Every year about 320 thousand men of working age die in the country. More or less long men live only in Moscow - 71.5 years old, Ingushetia - 75 years old, St. Petersburg - 68.8 years old, Krasnodar Territory - 67 years old, Karachay-Cherkessia - 68 years old, the Oryol region - 70.6 years. In the rest of the regions, many will not reach the pension plank, especially raised to 65 years.
Meanwhile, according to a member of the Health Committee,
mortality among mans of working age is three times higher than that of women in the same age (up to 55 years).
It seems that there is no intentive response to these questions. Although the sake of fairness should be recognized that the efforts of the Ministry of Health of the Ministry of Health will be clearly not enough. This is the responsibility zone as a whole. The men themselves also have complaints. It is known that men are less willing than women, agree to the diagnosis and surveys. "In Europe, for example, men refer to their health, less consume strong alcohol, smoke less, leads to disease prevention," Khasanova notes.
Nevertheless, the fact remains: if the authorities do not focus on maintaining the health of men, then the May decree on the duration of life can be failed. And the economy will not offer workers in basic industries. In mainly "male" - in transport, in the oil and gas sphere, in construction, in the military-industrial complex, agriculture. Here the share of male work is from 68% to 84%.
Get an overall comment from the Ministry of Health about what efforts the department directs to reduce male mortality, failed.
At the same time, Ranjigs experts notice that "the reduction in the breaking of the expected life expectancy by the floor is not considered in Russia as the direct goal of national projects." That is, it is assumed to implement measures that contribute to a decrease in mortality at the same time both men and women. A pointful measures that would contribute to an increase in the life expectancy of men and, as a result, the rise in the life expectancy of the population as a whole, the Ministry of Health does not offer.
However, the analyst "Finam" does not see the need for the introduction of a special program to increase the life expectancy of men. We need reforms in the country's economy so that medical services are available to everyone and have not worked for wear. At the same time, employers should stimulate and even force employees to undergo a program of dispensarization, expert says.
But the problem always rests on money.
"If the Russians had money and the opportunity to work on highly paid works, a lot of rest and are not afraid of all the time of layoffs, then the life expectancy would increase in men, and in women,"
- summarizes the expert.
It is possible to reduce the gap in the duration of life and you need, I am sure the doctor of economic sciences, a member of Eugene. Men really are partly to blame for their health problems. But the Russian health system is arranged so as to treat patients, but not focused on the prevention of diseases in men.
"The cost principle is used. If the diagnosis was diagnosed, they begin to treat, but before the diagnosis, a man usually remains one to one with its diseases, "says Gonmakher.
According to him, this problem is the prevention of male diseases at an early stage - not solved in any health care system. In the US, it is too road and is not allowed. European countries have now begun to experiment more actively with preventive measures. But there are no experiments in Russia. Although the difference in the life expectancy of gender signs was known since the times of the USSR.
"After 55-60 years, life expectancy in both floors is closer and approximately the same. But in the most acute risk zone just a man at the peak of their working capacity - 40-55 years. Preventive programs If there are, they are symbolic, "the expert concludes.
Dynamics of life expectancy in Russia
Over the past half a century and prospects for reaching 80+ levels.
Session of the demographic section of the central home of scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences
On November 22, 2018, a regular meeting of the demographic section of the central home of scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences was held. Chairman of Demmection K.E.N., V.V. Elizarov presented the Rapporteur Dmitry Vladimirovich Pomazkina, the leading expert of the Institute of Social Policy. At the same time, he noted that the topic discussed today is extremely relevant and causes great interest.
At the beginning of his report D.V. Pomazkin noted that, since 2006, in Russia there is a steady increase in life expectancy significantly exceeding growth rates in other countries. In the materials of demographic policy, the targets of the expected lifespan were identified: by 2025, the BPC should reach the value of 78 years, and in the Presidential Message to the Federal Assembly (01.03.2018), a reference point is 80 years old by 2030. On the one hand, the observed growth rates of life expectancy and a noticeable difference compared to a number of countries make it possible to make assumptions about maintaining a rate of mortality in the next 10 years and achieving targets. However, on the other hand, there are risks that the observed growth is associated with the effect of a low base and can slow down, which will not allow the BP to achieve the required values.
Figure 1. Life expectancy in Russia 1961-2017, years(Rosstat data)
As can be seen from Figure 1, over the past 60 years, there has been a change in the trend of the expected life expectancy. Since 2006, growth has been celebrated, and in some periods of PPE for men increases for almost a year. In Europe, an increase in life expectancy for 1 year over the past 50 years occurs on average for 5 years. The life expectancy at birth in Russia over the past 6 years has grown for the entire population for 2.46 years (from 70.24 to 72.70 years): in men - for 2.95 years (from 64.56 to 67.51 years ), Women - for 1.78 years (from 75.86 to 77.64 years). The difference in the expected life expectancy in men and women (from 11.30 to 10.13) has decreased.
It is assumed that it is the implementation of the national project "Health" to achieve target indicators.
Further D.V. Pomazkin focused on the results of the forecast of the expected lifespan for men and women, while noting that the indicators of demographic policies exceed the meaning of the average forecast of Rosstat (Figure 2). An analysis showed that the achievement of the BP at the birth of 80 years in 2030 is possible only at a rate of mortality rate of 4.5%, which exceeds the pace observed today.
Figure 2. Forecast of expected lifespan at birth for the entire population of Russia, years
There is a natural question, what is limited to the maximum age of survival and how long can the transition period continue? For a number of countries, there is an almost linear trend for increasing the expected lifespan for a newborn with a tempo of about 2 years for every decade over the past 60 years. During this time, life expectancy e 0 In some countries increased by 12-14 years. Considering that the dispersion of the expected life expectancy is equal to a square root from a double value, about 15% of men born today (excluding further decline in mortality) will live to 93 years. Taking into account the significant difference between the cohort and population mortality, the share of living up to the specified age can be significantly higher. Therefore, it can be assumed that over time, on average, the life expectancy for men can approach the age of 90 (in Japan for women, the life expectancy is already 86 years old), which will be needed for approximately 50 years in the observant today. mortality.
However, to preserve the linear growth rate of life expectancy, the rate of mortality should increase. Those. Over time, proportional dependence disappears. Thus, there is another restriction associated with the requirement of growth rates of mortality. (This effect is manifested at high values. e 0 And it may be associated with the approach to the recovery age).
If you share age into two parts - up to 50 years and older, and see the effect (contribution) in the life expectancy since the birth of changes in mortality in these groups of ages, it turns out that women have a decrease in mortality by 80% (annual depreciation rate of 15% per year for 10 years) in the ages of up to 50 years and in the absence of a decrease in mortality in ages older than 50 years old life expectancy increases by 2.4 years, in men for 5.3 years.
If we assume that the annual rates of mortality rates over the next 10 years will not change and amount to women up to 50 years - 4-5% per year, after 50 - 2-3% year and for men - 5-6% and 2- 3%, respectively, for the next 10 years, mortality in women under the age of 50 years will decrease by 34-40%, after 50 to 20-25%, in men under the age of 50 years by 40-45%, after 50 years 20-25%. Thus, the maximum life expectancy in women in 10 years may be 81 years old, men - 73 years old. Average arithmetic - 77 years.
The effect of a mortality rate trend is that when choosing as a long-term tempo of the average, an error occurs associated with the direction and value of the trend. Thus, a change in mortality for 2017 exceeds the average mortality rate of almost all ages, but this does not give the right to their revision, since the expected growth e X. In 2018, much less than in record 2017.
Then the Rapporteur brought the results of modeling the expected lifespan at various annual rates of reducing mortality in individual cohorts and concluded that, taking into account the reduction in mortality during the transition from a homogeneous model to heterogeneous, assumptions about the future rate of mortality rate is possible. Thus, the assumption of the annual decrease in mortality by 3% can be adjusted by approximately 40% and is taken equal to 1.8%. Given that today the mortality rate observed today is in the interval of 2-3%, the corrected rate of mortality rate is approximately 1.5% -1.8%.
In the conclusion of D.V. Pomazkin noted that in case of maintaining the rate of decline in mortality at the level of 2.5%, by 2030, the lifespan for men and women in Russia can be 77.1 years. Taking into account the correction of the mortality rate caused by the influence of heterogeneity, the life expectancy may be a wound of 76.7 years. With an observed average pace of 4% in 2030, taking into account the heterogeneity of deaths, the APP reaches 78.7 years. With a higher rate of decline in mortality, for example, 5% per year, life expectation can reach 80 years, even taking into account the heterogeneity of deaths, however, the existence of such pace over the next 12 years is unlikely.
Report D.V. Pomazakina caused many questions and a lively discussion in which A.E. was performed. Ivanova, E.L. Sorok, V.V. Elizarov and others.
Decree of the President of the Russian Federation №204 dated 7.05.18 "On the national goals and strategic tasks of the development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024"
By the end of the next decade, Russia must confidently enter the club of the "80 plus" club, where life expectation exceeds 80 years
The life expectancy of Russians has grown to 73.6 years. This indicator has improved, in particular, by reducing infant mortality. But statistics spoil the men and statistics itself - the distortion of the causes of mortality does not allow to effectively deal with diseases. Against this background, achieve life expectancy in 80 years will not work, experts are sure.
"For 8 months of this year, an increase in life expectancy up to 73.6 years is registered on average, that is, by 0.7 years, compared with the 2018 indicator," said Veronica Skvortsov Minister of Health.
In women, the average lifespan exceeded 78.5 years.
"This happened due to the additional preservation of 34 thousand lives," Skvortsova added.
The Russians have become on average longer, because the total mortality rate has decreased by a thousand people - by 3.1%, compared with the same indicator of 2018.
In particular, there were fewer deaths in infancy - she died less almost 800 children under the age of 1 year. The Ministry of Health also believes that it has practically eradicated such a terrible disease as tuberculosis.
"It is important to note that an absolute national historical minimum achieved a mortality rate from tuberculosis - 5.1 per 100 thousand population. This is 13.6% lower than in the same period last year, "said Skvortsov.
The fight against tuberculosis is the subject of special pride of the Ministry of Health. The current Tuberculosis indicator is even better than he was in the USSR. Then mortality from this disease was 7.7 per 100 thousand people.
But it is impossible to drastically reverse the mortality of diseases of the circulatory system.
"We see good results in the country's total mortality rate in those regions of the country where planned work is carried out to reduce mortality from cardiovascular diseases," Skvortsov summed up.
A big question as correctly to take Soviet figures for the reference point. Isn't in those years aphorism was born: there is a lie, there is an unfailed lie, and there are statistics?
It is even more profitable then to compare the last 20th anniversary with the indicators of the Russian Empire. At the end of the XIX century, the life expectancy was about 30 years. Against this background, modern Russia would look just great. Although according to this indicator, Tsarist Russia lasted from the UK, Germany and France for 10-15 years.
Repovering about the life expectancy, the Minister of Skvortsova at the same time answered criticism - previously sounded from the government and was unprecedented. On October 14, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev demanded to stop manipulations with mortality status.
"About mortality numbers - we understand what happened. They hid just these figures, the indicators in this case changed, because other causes of death indicated. This is a lies. In the literal sense of the word. Customized under the regulations that were acting so as not to arrive on the head, "Medvedev said at the meeting of the Presidium of the Council under the Strategic Development and National Projects.
The lists not only in reports on cardiovascular pathologies.
"It also applies to oncology too," Medvedev crushed.
Thus, the head of government responded to clarifications of heads of regions relating to inaccurate statistics for the causes of mortality in subjects.
The prime minister warned then that if in the future some of the regional bosses will be caught on manipulations with statistics, "the consequences will be very and very unpleasant."
Medvedev also reported that mortality from cardiovascular pathologies decreased in 49 entities, but in 36 regions this indicator, on the contrary, increased.
Skvortsova did not agree with such criticism. "Those regions that underestimated" vascular mortality ", encoding the causes of death as unclear or" from old age ", on the one hand, still could not distort the indicators of total mortality and life expectancy," explained in the department.
Regional officials from medicine and statistics once again recalled the rules for encoding the causes of death. Now it is important that they will remember these rules when beautiful numbers will be required.
In fact, the life expectancy rate stagnates, experts surveyed by "newspaper.ru" note.
"Stagnation is associated with fluctuations in the social sphere and deterioration in the standard of living of pensioners. Pension indexation does not allow old men to buy high-quality and natural products and necessary medicines. They often have to be replaced with analogues, "says Pavel Seagal, the first vice president of the" Support of Russia ".
From 2004 to 2019, the expected average life expectancy in Russia increased from 65 to 73 years. Thus, on average, it has steadily increased by 206 days a year for 15 years, an expert notes.
"To search for a certain change specific for 2019 for 2019 - this is the lot of political technologists," the expert is irritated.
As for the stable rise in life expectancy for one and a half dozen years, what the Ministry of Health shows, this growth has become possible after a catastrophic collapse from 70 to 64 years in the early 90s of the last century. That is, statistics starts from a low base and proud here there is nothing particularly.
Mortality statistics traditionally "spoil" men. Now male mortality rates are improving at such a speed, in which it grew mainly in countries that moved from civil war to peaceful life, adds an expert.
Men really are partly to blame for their health problems. But the Russian health system is arranged so as to treat patients, but not focused on the prevention of diseases in men, the doctor of Economics, Member of the Civil Initiatives Committee, Evgeny Gonmakher, is confident.
"The cost principle is used. If the diagnosis was diagnosed, it is beginning to be treated, but before the diagnosis, a man usually remains one on one with its illnesses, "said Gonmeter.
According to him, this problem is the prevention of male diseases at an early stage - not solved in any health care system. In the US, it is too road and is not allowed. European countries have now begun to experiment more actively with preventive measures. But there are no experiments in Russia. Although the difference in the life expectancy of gender signs was known since the times of the USSR.
The average life expectancy in Russia at the end of last year is 72.8 years. Over the past year, she grew by 73 days, previously calculated experts of Ranjigs. The Ministry of Health considers these figures to record. At least, the head of the Ministry of Health of Veronik Skvortsova spoke about this at the final collegium of the department in April.
In the May decree, President Vladimir Putin, we remind, set the task to ensure an increase in the life expectancy up to 78 years by 2024, and by 2030, to bring this indicator to 80 years.
Experts have considerable doubts about the ability of the government to enter the indicators declared by the President. In order to achieve them, an annual increase in life expectancy is necessary for almost a year, experts say.
"If there is no fundamental change in social policy, by 2024 the life expectancy will not grow up to the 78 years marked by the president, it is almost unrealistic. Our forecast: life expectancy will increase only to 75-76 years, "says Ramil Khasanova, Senior Researcher of the Laboratory for Demography and Migration of Insap Ravgigs.
Increase the lifespan of the population will not work for many reasons, the main one of which is the low efficiency of the funds of the national project "Health", believed in Ranjigs. Or rather, the reason lies in the disproportionate distribution of even existing modest means to combat diseases.
"Today, only 3.5% (75.2 billion rubles) of funds allocated to the project, aimed at reducing mortality from diseases of the circulatory system (meanwhile, these diseases caused death in 46% of cases last year -" Gazeta.Ru "), And 56% (969 billion rubles) - to combat oncology (16% of all the dead)," said early experts in Ranjigs in the next monitoring.
These claims to the Ministry of Health have been expressed by many years. But quite recently, in August, the Prime Minister also criticized the work of the Schworts Minister for the fact that in 20 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, and land plots for the construction of ambulatory and modular paramedic-obstetric items were not provided with the most unclosed.
What is the prevention of diseases, if the Russians know elementary to pass the tests, there is no place to give birth. Critical comments on this occasion were made public on the official website of the government.
Until 2024 remained less than 5 years. If the life expectancy grew by 0.7 years, multiplying it by 5, we obtain an increase of 3.5 years. It follows that at the current rate of increasing life expectancy, by 2024, it will be about 77 years, which does not reach the goal of 78 years old, clarifies Delitsyn from Finam.
It remains to hope for a miracle. Including with statistics.
To manage social and economic processes in society and conducting effective and reasonable policies at the state and regional level, it is necessary to have accurate data on the number, structure and displacement of the population.
Demographic statistics: goals and objectives
In reality, the development of the economy, the creation of new production facilities and an increase in the standard of living is impossible without a high population. A country in which the mortality rate is constantly exceeded by the birth rate, literally doomed to gradual degradation and extinction. That is why the main purpose of the demographic policy of any state is to maintain a high level of permanent population.
The main tasks of demographers are: monitoring the number of population according to the census, RVD and registered regulations; study of the composition of the population on its floor and age; Calculation of indicators of the natural movement of the population.
Based on the received statistical data, analysis is carried out, the main demographic indicators are calculated and the areas of activity on the level of population are determined.
Life expectancy indicators
Two hundred years ago, the average length of human life did not exceed 35-40 years. In Pushkin Russia, a woman, just coping his thirty years, was already a real old woman, and a man in fifty was considered a deep old man. Over the past years, the situation has managed to seriously change, but the main purpose of the Company is still the achievement of maximum duration.
The life expectancy of one particular person is the time interval between his birth and death, i.e. age at the time of his death. To determine the length of the life of the entire population as a whole in demographic science, the indicator "Average life expectancy" was adopted. This is such a number of years that can average one person from the analyzed generation, provided that, throughout the existence of this individual, mortality in a separate age group will remain unchanged.
This indicator is made to calculate both for all newborns (in this case, it is called the "average life expectancy at birth") and for the subjects that have achieved certain age parameters.
In any case, when calculating the coefficients, it is necessary to apply the statistical data presented in the mortality tables.
Calculation of medium life expectancy
In demographic science there are several life expectancy options:
- individual;
- species;
- average.
The individual length of life is calculated for the entire human type as a whole, and its maximum value is 113-116 years, since it is precisely the age of older from long-livers.
The species expectancy of life is such a number of years that any person can live under favorable conditions. In the modern world, this digit is 95 years old. It is so much that any individual who does not have chronic diseases and a leading healthy lifestyle can live. This indicator is considered to be the limit for the next parameter.
It is the calculation of the average length of life that is the most correct method for assessing the state of population. The higher this indicator, the better the social and environmental situation in the area under study.
The average life expectancy is calculated as the average age according to the sample under study. This value is directly related to another important parameter - the expected length of life.
Factors affecting the middle length of life
The average life expectancy depends on the many different factors, among them social and economic indicators play a special role, as well as ecology. In the general case, the length of human life directly proportionally depends on the standard of living in the country and the magnitude of its incomes of its population. Thus, the absolute records of longevity were born in states where the average salary is about 36 thousand dollars a year. Other important parameters are a stable furnishings in the country and the availability of fresh vegetables and fruits.
A good ecological situation in the country is also a significant factor in determining the expected length of life of its population, but in reality the significance of this indicator, compared with the social aspect, is somewhat overvalued. For example, the latest studies of the life expectancy of individuals employed in working with radioactive substances (NPP workers, employees of institutes employed in nuclear physics) showed that it is somewhat higher than that of the other categories of the population. This is due precisely with additional social preferences allocated for these persons.
The value of the indicator for developed countries
All over the world with the gradual development of civilization there is a common tendency to a constant increase in the magnitude of the average length of life. So, in most developed states, this indicator reaches a mark of 75 and more years.
Residents of modern Japan, Andorra and France, where the expected length of time from birth and to death reaches values \u200b\u200bat eighty-three years have the most chances of the very old age. Naturally, this value is directly dependent on the quality of life. Therefore, the constant development of modern medicine and the growth of income of the population leads to the fact that scientists have started talking about the possibility of increasing the average life expectancy in developed countries to 120 years. Such forecasts put before demographers, the task of rethinking the very essence of the concept of "elderly age".
In general, the change in the age composition of the population of developed countries in favor of the older group is the main trend of the last decade. So, in 1998, the number of people over sixty-five years old exceeded the number of children born.
The process of gradual aging of population is characteristic of both the world community as a whole. Despite the decline in mortality rate and a constant increase in fertility, scientists predict that by 2045 the average age of a person will shift from 30-35 years old and will switch to a value of 40-47 years. In connection with such statistical reports, indicating a gradual decline in the number of working-age population, it can be assumed that the average retirement age will be changed in a majority.
Values \u200b\u200bof the indicator for developing countries
Unlike developed, in just still developing states, the average life expectancy in countries is relatively small. So, for most of them, this indicator is at 67 full years. In the least developed regions, it can be equal to 58 years.
Despite this, it should be noted that in general, over the past sixty years, there has been a sharp jump in the length of life throughout the planet as a whole. So, even in 1950, it was only thirty-six years old.
The highest length of life among developing countries has new industrial states of Latin America and Asia, as well as rich African oil exporters and petroleum products. Ostressive settlements of the Caribbean, where the standard of living and the magnitude of the income per individual are comparable with the indicators of some developed countries.
But the outsiders on the life expectancy are the countries of the southern region of Africa. Here the mortality rate is many times higher than the average world indicators, which is explained to the extremely low level of living, frequent military and political conflict and low quality medical care.
With regard to the age structure of the population of developing countries, here, in contrast to developed, progressive type prevails. For most of these states, a structure with an extended type of population reproduction is characterized, that is, the number of children and adolescents in them is significantly higher than the number of people of retirement age. This feature is associated with a high level of child mortality, which is still characteristic of many underdeveloped states. The most high probability of infant death and death of children aged from a year to three years.
At the same time, not all developing countries are able to cope with such a rapid increase in the population, which leads to the emergence of the policy of "demographic containment", when the state legislatively introduces a restriction on the number of children in one family. So, by the end of 2011, the limit on one child acted in China, and in India, local residents asked to dwell on two children.
Average life expectancy in Russia
Throughout the historical period, the average length of life in Russia had a tendency to a jump-shaking change. So, until the end of the nineteenth century, this parameter was equal to thirty years of life for men and thirty two for women. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, despite the permanent cataclysms, epidemics and war, the number and average life expectancy of men and women of Russia constantly grew. Soviet medicine played a special role in this issue. Due to its scale and planning of civilian audits, in the Soviet Union, it was possible to significantly increase the lifespan and achieve values \u200b\u200bcharacteristic of developed European countries. The subsequent anti-alcohol company only trusted the started, and by 1960-1965 the life expectancy of Soviet people reached the sixty-five years for men and seventy five for women.
The subsequent years of restructuring and "shock therapy" were seriously struck by these indicators. Fertility fell, seriously increased population mortality, and there was a sharp leap of child mortality. Thus, by the beginning of the two thousand years, the average life expectancy for men was fifty-eight years, and women were seventy-one.
At the present stage, the situation gradually begins to strain. So, in 2010, a natural loss of the population was stopped for the first time, i.e. the number of born exceeded the number of dead. The latest government reforms, the allocation of additional subsidies to young and large families and the improvement of living conditions led to the fact that the average life expectancy in Russia holds at sixty-six-six years for men and seventy-six years for women.
Distribution of the indicator by region
While we talked about such a thing as the average life expectancy in Russia. As for the value of the indicator in different regions of the country, then the situation is ambiguous. The lowest recorded in the Chukchi Autonomous District, the Republic of Tyva and the Jewish Autonomous Region. Here the length of life of ordinary Russian does not exceed the sixty-three years.
The average life expectancy in Moscow is quite expected in the top three of the highest indicators. Metropolitan residents live for ten years more than the main outsiders. For St. Petersburg, which is among the top ten most prosperous regions, the expected length of life also amounts to about seventy one year.
However, the most interesting is the fact that the greatest average life expectancy of a person is a characteristic feature of the inhabitants of the Republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan. It was here that most of the population lives to seventy eight years, which is even more than the average length of life in the United States.
In general, the statistics of life expectancy in Russia is disappointing. Only a few of the most prosperous regions are knocked out of the overall picture. For most, the average length of life for men does not exceed sixty, but for women - seventy three years.
The average length of life in the CIS countries
According to the latest UN reports on global indicators of demographic statistics, the life expectancy of the population of the earthly ball is growing steadily. So, in just the last 59 years, this figure has increased by 15 years and has reached for men 64 years and 68 - for women. However, with regard to the post-Soviet space, then the situation is completely disappointing.
Residents of Armenia live more than all of the former Soviet republics. Here, the life expectancy of the male population reaches 68.5 years, and the female 75. In second place is Georgia, in which the population lives only 1.5 years less.
The average life expectancy in Ukraine is approximately equal to Russian indicators and is 60.5 and 72.5 years. The worst things in Kazakhstan and Armenia are worst. But the average life expectancy in Belarus is 63 years old for men and 74.4 years for women.
Thus, none of the countries previously included in the Soviet Union failed to achieve an average life expectancy characteristic of modern developed states.
The average length of life in men and women
The genital population is called the ratio of men and women in a separate state, which depends on a number of biological, social and historical reasons. For example, in the first postwar years in the territory of all countries involved in conflict, there was a significant advantage of the number of women over the number of men. It is not by chance that the famous song was sang about the fact that "ten girls on statistics for nine guys." In reality, this figure was even more disappointing. So, throughout the USSR, one half-legged man accounted for two women.
To date, the situation has changed significantly. For example, as a whole, the world prevails precisely the men's half of the population, especially many representatives of strong sex live in Turkey, India and China. Like the situation is associated with the historically unfavorable position of women in these countries. Features of mentality, early marriages and frequent birth of children led to low length of life and high mortality among women.
However, in most states, the situation is still reverse. In Russia and Europe, the average expected length of life in a man about 5-6 years less than a woman. Such a tendency is associated with genetic and social predisposition. Women are less susceptible to infectious diseases, less often suffer from alcoholism, are not inclined to risk and not so aggressive.
