In 1964, the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov described what you would most likely see if you happened to be at the 2014 World's Fair. Asimov's predictions 50 years ago turned out to be incredibly accurate and perhaps a little depressing.

Here's what he turned out to be absolutely right:

“I thought that people would continue to move further away from nature in their attempts to create an environment that they liked better.”

“A kitchen utensil will be developed that will prepare ‘automatic food’, heat water and turn it into coffee.”

Today, the famous American science fiction writer of Soviet origin, Isaac Asimov, would have turned 94 years old. Isaac Yudovich Ozimov (as his parents named the boy) was born on January 2, 1920 in the town of Petrovichi, Mstislavl district, Mogilev province of Belarus (now Shumyachsky district, Smolensk region).

When the boy was three years old, his parents moved to America. A brief description of his brilliant scientific career makes a strong impression: at the age of 11 the young prodigy graduated from high school, at 15 he graduated from college, at 19 he graduated from university, at 21 he received a master’s degree, and at 28 he received a doctorate, after which he became a professor.

But science alone was not enough for Asimov. He discovered the extraordinary talent of a science fiction writer, and a little later - a unique erudite, capable of telling readers about everything in the world in an accessible and simple way!

Asimov is perhaps the only writer in the world who created more than 500 books during his life! They say that he worked from early morning until late evening, practically did not go outside and never even visited the winter garden that Azimov’s wife laid out at their home.

Asimov wrote in different genres: he has historical works and detective stories, but the stories about robots that he wrote from the age of 19 brought him the greatest fame. The ideas presented in them are no longer just fantasy, but reality.

Robots work in warehouses and factories, making airplanes and cars. South Korea plans to create robot guards in prisons. The US, South Korea, Israel and other countries are developing military drones and autonomous ground robots, many of them armed. Finally, children love robots.

But in 1939, when Asimov took up the topic, robots were a fairly new idea. The word “robot” was first mentioned in a play by Czech playwright Karel Capek. His robots are machines gone mad. But Isaac Asimov took a scientific look at the idea. “A robot must be designed to meet certain safety standards, just like any other machine created by an intelligent technological society,” he wrote.

Based on Asimov's first stories, a list of rules was compiled that robots obeyed. They became the three laws of robotics: 1) A robot cannot harm a person or, through inaction, allow a person to be harmed; 2) A robot must follow the orders of human beings, except in cases where these orders contradict the first law; 3) A robot must protect its existence, except in cases where such protection would conflict with the first or second law.

Asimov's laws of robotics were clear, direct and logical, but, like any laws, not always enforceable

Today's robots are capable of making independent decisions, so in 2009, scientists from the United States proposed three other laws. 1) Since it is people who create robotic systems, the human-robot system must meet high safety and ethical standards. 2) Robots must obey, but only to a limited number of people. 3) Robots must protect themselves, but only after they completely transfer control of the operation being performed (for example, driving a car) to a person. The discussion continues. On the agenda are topics such as psychological dependence on robots (similar to addiction to video games or smartphones), communication between a robot and a person.

Like many outstanding personalities, Asimov looked far into the future. This is what he predicted back in 1964.

• 1. In their attempts to create an optimal environment, people will move further and further from nature.
• 2. Kitchen utensils will be created that will heat water, turning it into coffee, and prepare automatic food. A complete meal, which will consist of half-cooked food, will be stored in the refrigerator until it is time to cook it.
• 3. In 2014, devices, of course, will be without electrical wires.
• 4. Huge efforts will be invested in creating robotic machines. In 2014, robots will not yet be widespread, they will not yet be good enough, but they will definitely exist.
• 5. By 2014, only unmanned ships will be able to land on Mars, however, a human expedition will be just around the corner, and in 2014 people will be able to see a model of a Martian colony.
• 6. For short distance journeys in city centers we will see moving sidewalks.

And perhaps my darkest prediction for 2014 is that in a society of enforced laziness, the most notable word in the dictionary will be Work!

• 7. It is very likely that in 2014 the number of people on Earth will be 6.5 billion people, and the population of the United States will exceed 350 million people.
• 8. Synchronized satellites that will hover above the Earth will give people the opportunity to make direct calls to anywhere on the planet. Communications will use not only sound, but also image; people will be able not only to hear the interlocutor, but also to see.
• 9. In 2014, at the World Exhibition, you will be able to see a full-size 3D TV on which the ballet will be broadcast.
• 10. In the world of 2014, there won't be many routine jobs that robotic machines can't do better than humans. Thus, humanity will turn, for the most part, into a race of looking after robots. Boredom in such conditions will become a serious problem for humanity.
• 11. Those people who are lucky enough to be involved in any kind of creative work will become the true elite of humanity, since only they will produce something more than just servicing machines.

Illustration copyright Getty Images Image caption The motto of the exhibition was “Peace through understanding,” but whether understanding has come after half a century is a big question Illustration copyright Reuters Image caption It seemed that a little more, and the cars would fly and float...

“In 2014, we will all be registered with psychiatrists.” Isaac Asimov promised us such a prospect exactly 50 years ago when he published his forecasts for 2014.

And the reason for such an original prediction by the world-famous science fiction writer was the World Exhibition "Expo 64-65", which was held in the New York borough of Queens from April to October 1964 (and then again from April to October 1965).

Asimov believed that in 50 years we would all simply go crazy - in the figurative sense of the word - from the abundance of different devices and devices that will appear in our lives.

Although the exhibition's motto was "Peace through Understanding", today it is remembered primarily for its futuristic concepts.

And it doesn’t matter that some of them, like underwater dwellings and flying cars, never became widespread.

But many of Asimov’s predictions hit the mark.

What did the science fiction writer expect to see 50 years later in 1964?

1. “The connection will be visual and audio, and we will only hear, but also see the interlocutor on the phone.”

The first transatlantic video call was made on April 20, 1964, thanks to technology from Bell Systems (later Bell Laboratories), which may have partially led Asimov to his prophecy.

However, even he would be surprised by the cost of today's Skype or Apple FaceTime calls: in 1964, a three-minute video call between Washington and New York cost $16 - almost $120 in today's money.

2. “It will be possible to call directly to any point on earth, even to an Antarctic weather station.”

Pure truth. Some stations have a code of 672, others have a New Zealand code of +64.

3. “In 2014, robots won’t be very common or very advanced, but they will be there.”

Asimov was the first to coin the word robotics (robotics), so it is not surprising that he was right when he predicted that full-fledged android robots would not appear in 2014, but miniature robotic computers (and the same smartphone is nothing more than like a robot) will become widely used in everyday life.

4. “As for televisions, wall-mounted screens will replace conventional devices, and transparent cubes will even begin to appear, allowing you to see the picture in three dimensions.”

One of the peculiarities of Asimov's predictions is that he sometimes accurately identified future technologies, but overestimated the enthusiasm with which they would be greeted.

We must give the science fiction writer his due: flat screens have replaced conventional TVs, and even 3D TVs have appeared, albeit not in the shape of a cube.

But he was wrong about his sentiments: the BBC is even going to suspend broadcasting films in 3D “due to lack of interest in them.”

5. "Communicating with the Moon will be a little difficult."

Of course, even an old woman can get into trouble. At the dawn of the space age, it seemed to everyone, and not only science fiction writers, that lunar colonies were just a stone's throw away. And the inconvenience will only be associated with a signal delay of two and a half seconds.

But where Asimov hit the nail on the head is with the assumption that by 2014 “only unmanned ships will visit Mars.”

6. “Food processors will cook their own food and brew coffee.”

Well, automatic coffee makers do exist.

Asimov also believed that scientists would create products with different flavors, from turkey to steak, based on modified yeast and algae.

And this idea was, in fact, realized last year, when the first artificial burger was created in the laboratory.

Of course, one can argue with Azimov here: he promised that the taste of these products would be “very good,” but those who had a chance to try laboratory meat were not delighted.

7. "One or two experimental plasma power plants will appear."

Talk about mastering thermonuclear fusion, a process that occurs in the depths of stars, has remained just talk, although it continues today.

However, there is a long-term international project worth $22 billion to build such a reactor in the south of France, and it could be launched in 2028.

On the other hand, Asimov's predictions for large solar power plants in desert or semi-desert areas like Arizona or the Negev turned out to be surprisingly accurate.

8. "A lot of effort will be put into creating robotic vehicles."

Yes and no. Machines have become much smarter, but they cannot yet operate fully automatically.

Aquaplanes, “capable of gliding through water with minimal friction” and which fascinated exhibition visitors, also did not take root.

Jetpacks and hovercraft also have not become widely available, although the military uses them.

9. “Not the entire population of the planet will have access to future new technologies. And although people will live better materially, an even larger percentage of the population as a whole than today will lag behind the leaders in quality of life.”

It is very difficult to list everything that Asimov predicted correctly or almost correctly back in 1964.

The writer's predictions regarding population growth and birth control alone deserve a separate article.

But perhaps his most important conclusion, or warning, was that both yesterday and tomorrow, technologies that can transform our lives for the better can do more harm than good if we do not provide equal access to them for everyone

Back in 1965, journalists from The New York Times suggested that the already authoritative writer Isaac Asimov, whose science fiction works were dedicated to the future, make the most reliable, in his opinion, predictions for 50 years ahead. As it turned out, Asimov absolutely accurately predicted some aspects of our lives, but somewhere he was wrong.

Madness due to technological progress

Having visited the famous Expo 64-65 exhibition, Isaac Asimov was amazed by the abundance of technical devices presented at it. The trends of progress prompted him to think that all these mechanisms, taking up more and more space in a person’s life, would gradually begin to drive him crazy.

In 2014, we will all be registered with psychiatrists

The forecast given by the science fiction writer said that in half a century many people will have serious problems with the perception of reality, because it is not so easy for a person to adapt to such drastic life changes.

Fortunately or unfortunately, the devices presented at the exhibition still have not entered into people’s lives: underwater dwellings, flying cars - all this remains a distant and very vague prospect. The emphasized avant-garde nature of the exhibition led to the fact that it had nothing to do with reality: the basic physical concepts were ignored.

Yes, the writer was wrong here. However, many of the famous science fiction writer's predictions came true. Let's talk about them.

Video calling

In the 64th year of the twentieth century, the first transatlantic call with video was made, which prompted Asimov to think that in the future this technology would become natural and normal. Today, every second young person uses the same Skype (calls on which can be made for free; for comparison: the first call with video cost more than a hundred dollars in today’s terms), which indicates the accuracy of the prediction.

Communication with anywhere in the world

The science fiction writer suggested that it would be possible to call anywhere in the world - even to a station located in Antarctica. And yes: his prediction came true quite a long time ago. By the way, the code for the stations there is 672. However, only humans are developing: the penguin still won’t pick up the phone...

Robotics

In 2014, robots will not be very common or very advanced, but they will be

The prophecy that robots will have a place in the world (although the writer made a reservation that they will not become particularly widespread) has completely come true: in fact, modern phones (we are talking about smartphones) are robot computers; and almost every person has such a gadget. By the way, it was Azimov who coined the word robotics (translated into Russian as robotics). And if we’re talking about it in all honesty, there are a lot of attempts being made. There is, for example, the famous Asimo robot from Honda, guess who the robot is named after? The robot is constantly being improved and can already do a lot. Also, don’t forget about the company Boston Dynamics, which is increasingly surprising and frightening with its new robots, mainly for military purposes. But all these details deserve a separate article.

Flat Screens - TVs of the 21st Century

As for televisions, wall-mounted screens will replace conventional devices, and transparent cubes will even begin to appear, allowing you to see the picture in a three-dimensional image

Another apt remark concerns progress in the field of television technology. In the mid-twentieth century, a television was a dimensional parallelepiped, which is why the idea that such a device could be flat (and hung on a wall) was then unusually bold and out of the norm.

It's funny that the appearance of such technology surprised no one and was taken for granted by future generations: Asimov somewhat overestimated the reaction to televisions of the new century. He also said that some transparent cubes would appear, broadcasting a three-dimensional image. Even though such devices have not appeared, almost every modern TV can show a picture in 3D format. Only this turns out to be of no use to anyone: the BBC even intends to stop broadcasting films in 3D due to a lack of interest in them.

Connection with the Moon

Asimov prophesied the possibility of communication with the Moon (noting that it would be only slightly difficult) and... He was wrong. However, making predictions for half a century in advance is not an easy task: it is absolutely impossible to avoid mistakes here. In the 60s, people thought that progress in terms of space exploration would go extremely quickly: the prospect of building colonies on the Moon did not seem particularly absurd.

However, in another respect the famous science fiction writer was right: he said that by 2014 Mars would be visited, but only by unmanned ships. And this, indeed, has already happened.

Cooking food and coffee without human intervention

Technological progress in the mid-20th century did not allow the creation of a professional coffee maker that would make coffee without human intervention. That is why today's automatic coffee makers - devices that will not surprise anyone - then seemed only a distant prospect; the prospect that Asimov predicted.

The science fiction writer also said that it would be possible to produce products made from modified yeast and algae, and this food could have any taste. Partially, the prediction came true: not so long ago, a burger was created in laboratory conditions. However, here’s the problem: contrary to the writer’s assumptions, the taste of artificial products is significantly inferior to their natural counterparts.

Plasma power stations

The idea of ​​a plasma power plant powered by thermonuclear fusion (similar processes occur, for example, in the interior of stars) is very beautiful, but nothing like this has been created to this day. However, there is an international project (its cost is more than twenty billion dollars), which can be implemented in 2028 (however, the prospect remains distant and very vague).

But Asimov guessed something else: he thought about the existence of huge power plants powered by ultraviolet rays. And there really are such stations: they are located in such desert places as Arizona and the Negev (in exact accordance with the writer’s assumptions).

Robotic transport

Yes, the car of today is strikingly different from the car of the mid-20th century, but the driver still has to turn the steering wheel independently to control the vehicle. However, Google has successfully tested its autopilot. And in 2014, she presented a completely self-driving car without a steering wheel or pedals. And at that time, other unmanned test systems installed on regular production cars had already driven about a million kilometers in real conditions without human intervention.

There are also Tesla cars with an autopilot function, but these cars are still too expensive and the autopilot is not yet perfect; the company recommends keeping an eye on it and keeping your hands ready to take control in case of unforeseen situations. In cars accessible to the main consumer, a colossal number of “smart” functions act as a help, but alas, they themselves do not drive yet.

Asimov also got it right with the creation of jetpacks and ships, but they are inaccessible to a wide range of people.

Social stratification

Not the entire population of the planet will have access to future new technologies. And although people will live better materially, an even larger percentage of the population than today will generally lag behind the leaders in quality of life

The writer thought that future technologies may not be available to a wide range of people, although he noticed that the financial situation of the bulk of the Earth's population would, on average, improve. This is partly true: many of the benefits of medicine can only be enjoyed by a limited number of people, whose financial well-being differs significantly from the financial well-being of the average person. But almost everywhere there is the Internet: the global network today reaches even the most distant corners of our planet (for example, Google wants to ensure its presence even in the most “inconvenient” places).

In general, this prediction is extremely social: it is obvious that the writer was oppressed by a monstrous social stratification. Progress that radically changes life sometimes changes it only for a narrow circle of people, while the majority remains at approximately the same level. Sometimes technologies can even become harmful if they are not available to everyone. The great writer warned us about this, and there is no doubt about the relevance of his warnings.

35 years ago, on the eve of 1984, the Canadian publication The Star, impressed by George Orwell’s prophetic dystopia “1984,” asked the famous science fiction writer Isaac Asimov to write a forecast article about what, in his opinion, awaits humanity in 2019.

The year was not chosen by chance. Orwell's masterpiece was published in 1949 - 35 years before the period described by the writer. Journalists seemed curious to find out how our world will change in another 35 years, writes “Lifehacker”.

Now the moment has come when you can check how true Asimov's prophecies were.

What came true

From Asimov’s point of view, humanity on the way to 2019 should have been disturbed by three most important thoughts:

1. Probability of nuclear war.
2. Mass computerization.
3. Use of outer space.

Regarding the first point, at the time Asimov was asked to predict the future, the world was in tension due to the Cold War, when relations between the two superpowers - the USSR and the USA - were reaching a boiling point. The world was on the verge of disaster, but the futurist still chose to remain an optimist.

“If the United States and the Soviet Union continue to cling to each other, it is completely useless to discuss what life will be like in 2019. In this case, only a few of us, our children and grandchildren will be alive, and I see no point in describing in detail the global suffering. So let's assume that nuclear wars it won’t,” the writer noted then.

Asimov also predicted computerization surprisingly accurately, although in the early 1980s few people believed in the massive development of this area. Moreover, the science fiction writer made a number of additional conclusions from his prophecy, which are also coming true today. If we touch on this topic in more detail, this is what we get.

1. Mass computerization

Asimov firmly called it inevitable. In his opinion, by 2019, society will reach a level where it simply cannot exist without computers, which will be used both in the economy and industry, and in every home.

“Those countries that lag behind in this regard will suffer so obviously that their governments themselves will begin to demand computerization, just as they demand weapons today,” Azimov argued.

This prophecy has definitely come true: today there is a PC in almost every home, even in third world countries.

2. The disappearance of some professions

This fact, from Asimov’s point of view, is an inevitable consequence of computerization. But at the same time, not everyone will be happy.

“Before the Industrial Revolution, the vast majority of humanity was engaged in agriculture and related service work. When industrialization began, the transition from farm to factory was quick and painful. With computerization, the transition from a factory to something new will be even faster and, as a result, even more painful,” the science fiction writer predicted.

It's not even that computers will take people's jobs. The need for a whole range of professions will simply disappear: any clerical work, any assembly, any mechanical repetitive work will be automated. They will begin to be performed by computers and robots controlled by them, and they will do it more quickly and successfully.

Prediction too it came true : by 2019, a number of professions had already died out, for example, telephone operators and stenographers, and by 2020, dozens of other specialties are expected to disappear from the market. Moreover, as Azimov assumed, this is connected exactly with automation and the development of computer control systems.

3. Changing the concept of education

The advent of computers and the associated changes in the labor market, according to the writer, will require fundamental changes in the approach to school (and further) education. First of all, it must be computerized. If before industrialization a person could live well without being literate, then in 2019 it will be impossible without the ability to handle computers and navigate the new high-tech world.

The futurist predicted the disappearance of teachers. By 2019, they may well be replaced by computers, and children will receive education at home - not according to the standard school curriculum, but at an individual pace and in accordance with their own interests.

In general, this prediction can also be considered, if not fulfilled, then actively coming true. The principles of raising and educating children are fundamentally have changed , and more and more parents prefer so-called distance learning in online schools.

4. Growing environmental problems

“The consequences of human irresponsibility in terms of waste and pollution will become increasingly obvious and intolerable over time. Trying to cope will become more stressful. It is hoped that by 2019, advances in technology will provide us with the tools that will help reverse environmental degradation,” Azimov predicted.

The first half of this forecast has obviously come true: environmental problems in the world are really growing. But with the second, unfortunately, there was a mistake: modern scientists have not been able to offer a way out of this crisis.

What did not come true, but perhaps will come true

There are other ways in which human society is progressing more slowly than the astute science fiction writer expected. Here they are.

1. Robots in every home

So far this hasn't happened. Unless, of course, we consider robotic vacuum cleaners, smart coffee makers and kettles with Internet access to be full-fledged “mobile computerized objects”.

2. Successful space exploration

By 2019, according to Asimov’s forecasts, humanity will return to the Moon with renewed vigor and even create a colossal inhabited station there, whose employees will extract minerals and produce from them building materials necessary for the construction of other objects in space . The science fiction writer also envisioned the launch of global production into orbit (this would reduce environmental pollution on the planet) and the creation of a huge space power plant to collect solar energy and transmit it to Earth.

But it seems something went wrong.

3. World peace

The need to solve social, educational, environmental, and space issues, on which the existence of our civilization directly depends, should force humanity to unite.

“There will be an increase in cooperation between nations and groups within nations—not because of a sudden increase in idealism or decency, but because of a cool realization that lack of cooperation means ruin for all,” the writer predicted.

Asimov believed so, even predicting the creation of some semblance of a world government. Alas, in this matter the legendary science fiction writer again turned out to be too optimistic.